AA 2803 · MIA → MCO

departs 6:41 PM ET · arrives 8:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.17 in

MCO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2803 · MIA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?