Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2836 LANDED 7:17 PM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AA 2836 · LGA → FLL

took off 4:55 PM ET · landed 7:17 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2836 · LGA → FLL

Odds over time