Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3053 LANDED 3:04 PM MT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AA 3053 · DFW → ABQ

took off 2:40 PM CT · landed 3:04 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ABQ (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3053 · DFW → ABQ

Odds over time