Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3053 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 3053 · DFW → LGA

departs 9:30 AM CT · arrives 1:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±5 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ LGA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.20 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3053 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?