Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3156 LANDED 6:39 PM MT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 3156 · CLT → DEN

took off 5:46 PM ET · landed 6:39 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3156 · CLT → DEN

Odds over time