AA 3205 · MIA → LGA

took off 7:21 AM ET · landed 9:40 AM ET (scheduled 6:56 AM ET → 9:59 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MIA are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3205 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?