Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 404 IN THE AIR (OFF 12:30 PM MT, ETA 7:33 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 404 · PHX → MIA

took off 12:30 PM MT · expected to land 7:33 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 404 · PHX → MIA

Odds over time