AA 404 · PHX → MIA

departs 12:13 PM MT · arrives 7:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.72 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 404 · PHX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?