Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 430 LANDED 10:05 AM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 430 · CLT → CVG

took off 9:16 AM ET · landed 10:05 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 430 · CLT → CVG

Odds over time