Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 450 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 450 · PHX → SAT

departs 9:46 AM MT · arrives 2:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

SAT (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 450 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?