AS 1174 · LIH → HNL

took off 8:48 PM HT · landed 9:03 PM HT (scheduled 8:45 PM HT → 9:23 PM HT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to HNL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LIH that day

↑ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 8pm departures from LIH are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.19 in

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1174 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late did it get to HNL?