Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 409SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 409 · IAD → SEA
departs 6:03 AM ET · arrives 8:48 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
18%chance · ±0 pts−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREVery high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.