Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 429 LANDED 6:12 PM CT, ~130 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 429 · SEA → ORD

took off 12:49 PM PT · landed 6:12 PM CT (scheduled 10:29 AM PT → 4:44 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 429 · SEA → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?