AS 830 · HNL → JFK

took off 3:17 PM HT · expected to land 6:32 AM ET (scheduled 3:09 PM HT → 6:55 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JFK?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 830 · HNL → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?