Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:54 PM ET, ETA 8:01 PM PT)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 9 · DCA → PDX

took off 5:54 PM ET · expected to land 8:01 PM PT (scheduled 5:16 PM ET → 8:04 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

LIVE

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9 · DCA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?