Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 9 · DCA → PDX

departs 5:16 PM ET · arrives 8:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9 · DCA → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?