B6 161 · JFK → SMF

took off 6:39 PM ET · expected to land 9:02 PM PT (scheduled 6:20 PM ET → 9:49 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 161 · JFK → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?