Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
B6 185 · JFK → RDU
departs 8:30 PM ET · arrives 10:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 41%
Fri 10/2 66%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 34%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.