Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
B6 495 · HPN → MCO
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 3:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 15%
Thu 10/1 13%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
HPN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.