Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
B6 504 · SJU → JFK
departs 8:10 PM AT · arrives 12:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 40%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from SJU are often late
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 7,840 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.