Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 81
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
B6 81 · JFK → RNO
departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 9:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 22%
Thu 10/1 28%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
6pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.