Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1243
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
DL 1243 · TPA → DTW
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.