Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1542
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
DL 1542 · MSP → LAS
departs 2:51 PM CT · arrives 4:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 14%
Thu 10/1 13%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.54 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.