DL 1609 · MSP → STL

departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 11:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.57 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1609 · MSP → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?