DL 2159 · SFO → MSP

departs 3:27 PM PT · arrives 9:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2159 · SFO → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?