DL 2521 · RDU → MSP

took off 3:20 PM ET · expected to land 4:38 PM CT (scheduled 2:46 PM ET → 4:41 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

LIVE

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ 2pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.90 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2521 · RDU → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?