DL 2654 · ATL → MSP

departs 6:33 PM ET · arrives 8:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±5 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2654 · ATL → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?