DL 2846 · MSP → EWR

departs 8:15 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±5 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ 8pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.90 in

EWR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2846 · MSP → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?