Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
DL 2846 · MSP → EWR
departs 8:15 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 15%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↑
8pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.