Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
DL 2854 · SEA → LAX
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 11:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 15%
Thu 10/1 19%
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.02 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.