Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2912
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
DL 2912 · IND → MSP
departs 4:16 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 22%
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from IND are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.