Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2962
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
DL 2962 · MSP → DCA
departs 6:35 PM CT · arrives 10:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 26%
Thu 10/1 20%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
6pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.54 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 9.6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.