DL 2963 · MSP → DCA

took off 3:00 PM CT · landed 5:57 PM ET (scheduled 2:37 PM CT → 6:09 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.90 in

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2963 · MSP → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?