DL 313 · HNL → MSP

departs 4:20 PM HT · arrives 5:02 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 313 · HNL → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?