Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
DL 3185 · STL → MSP
departs 5:36 PM CT · arrives 7:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 14%
Thu 10/1 22%
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 767 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 767 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.