DL 536 · SEA → MSP

took off 1:06 PM PT · expected to land 5:50 PM CT (scheduled 12:17 PM PT → 5:36 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

72% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

LIVE

On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 536 · SEA → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?