F9 1292 · DEN → MSP

took off 9:15 PM MT · landed 11:40 PM CT (scheduled 9:08 PM MT → 12:12 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to MSP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1292 · DEN → MSP

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSP?