Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
F9 1541 · PHL → MCO
departs 9:16 PM ET · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 38%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 35%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.