Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
F9 2530 · DTW → MCO
departs 8:30 PM ET · arrives 11:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 44%
Sat 10/3 36%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.