F9 2802 · LAS → DTW

departs 9:40 PM PT · arrives 4:33 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2802 · LAS → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?