Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2802
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
F9 2802 · LAS → DTW
departs 11:59 PM PT · arrives 7:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.