Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2802
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 2802 · LAS → DTW
departs 11:59 PM PT · arrives 7:00 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.