Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4018 LANDED 12:42 PM ET, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

F9 4018 · DFW → MCO

took off 9:26 AM CT · landed 12:42 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4018 · DFW → MCO

Odds over time