F9 4241 · LAS → RNO

departs 6:30 PM PT · arrives 8:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±2 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ 6pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.19 in

RNO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4241 · LAS → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?