Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4241 · LAS → RNO
departs 6:30 PM PT · arrives 8:02 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Wed 9/30 17%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.