Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
F9 4551 · MIA → LAS
departs 10:15 PM ET · arrives 12:22 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 50%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 39%
Tue 10/6 32%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.21 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.