Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4685
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
F9 4685 · PSE → MCO
departs 10:32 AM AT · arrives 1:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 17%
Thu 10/1 22%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PSE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↑
PSE is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PSE (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.