F9 690 · DEN → DCA

took off 4:43 PM MT · landed 9:35 PM ET (scheduled 4:28 PM MT → 9:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 690 · DEN → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?