Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3741 LANDED 11:56 PM CT, ~11 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

MQ 3741 · ORD → CWA

took off 11:18 PM CT · landed 11:56 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at CWA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at CWA that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ CWA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

CWA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3741 · ORD → CWA

Odds over time