Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
MQ 3830 · DFW → TUL
departs 6:36 PM CT · arrives 7:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.